Confirmed previous forecast
0.368802
Relative Brier Score
73
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 73 | 73 | 73 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 72 | 72 | 72 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
(-10%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
99%
(+19%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
1%
(-9%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time. CDC says we're currently at 1491, which is a 37 case increase from last week. We will surely hit another 9 before the end of the month, but unlikely an additional 159.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A late-breaking update of a huge outbreak that hasn't been reported yet.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
10%
(-30%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
80%
(+26%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
10%
(+4%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Given that as of 9/10 there are 1454 cases, I think there is a strong possibility that we will go over 1500. To hit 1500 cases in the next 3 weeks of updates, we would need to average 15.3 cases/week. If we include all weeks this year, we've averaged over 15 cases, 77% of the time. If we drop the last two weeks of year (b/c currenly likely quite low due to ongoing CDC updates) and the first two weeks (before any spread), we've averaged over 15 cases/week 87% of the year.
Now, to get past 1650, we'd need to have a substantial jump to 65 cases/week. We did have a jump like this in February, (from 28 cases one week to 65, 87, 75 the following weeks), so it is possible. On the flip side, a jump from over 20 cases/week to averaging under 15.3 for the three subsequent week also happened just once (in June).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Wrong too low: A big outbreak (not yet detected) could cause cases to spike above 1650.
Wrong too high: Perhaps the back-to-school bump has already peaked.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(+3%)
Less than or equal to 1
2%
(-3%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting down due to the passage of time and strong summaries by @SlamDunk02 and @McKinleyMorganfield
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It still is feasible that a couple of storms could start brewing and hit before the end of the month.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 600
0%
(0%)
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
45%
(+43%)
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
45%
(-13%)
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
10%
(-30%)
More than or equal to 690
Why do you think you're right?
I'm updating based on the data present through 8/21. As of 8/21, there were 433 incidents of political violence (20.6/day on average, down from (21.6/day earlier in the month). If the current rate of 20.6/day continues, that generates a total of 639 incidents for the month. However, since the data is typically updated upwards afterwards (by 3-7% according to other forecasters), It seems likely there will be over 660 events when all is counted.
There have been no months this year where incidents of per month have been lower than 630, so I don't think this is likely to happen.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There could be an uptick in political violence we're not yet aware of.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 250
0%
(0%)
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
60%
(-10%)
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
40%
(+10%)
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
As of now, there are 484 cases in PRISM, an average of 21.33 cases/day. This is higher than 8/1-8/25 (average 16.7/day) but if it continues we will be right on the border (predicting 547 if continue with current rate).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If there are just slightly more cases/day than we've had the last few days, we will tip into the final bucket.
Files
Hi! Good point @DippySkippy . I meant to say over the last few days (8/25-8/28) there were 64 new cases (21.333/day), and that if that elevated rate from the last few days continues then we'll be right near the 550 border.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time with no hurricanes yet and not enough time for two to develop and hit the U.S.
Why might you be wrong?
Black swan event--I suppose it could happen even though it's never occurred before.