I believe that the high trend for 2025 suggests a focus on border security that will similarly result in high numbers for July.
0.37312
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes
15%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is a lot of granularity in seizure values.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think that the numbers will closely track FY23 (which is under the target) but that there is enough noise including events like the World Cup that the actual travel volume could be above the target.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are numerous potential sources of downward trends including anti-American sentiment, exchange rates, temperature, and ICE activity.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Spain still seems to be the primary sticking point and their current 2.1% goal is a long way from 5% [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/24/world/europe/spain-nato-spending-weapons.html]
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There could be other factors at work, like train or aid deals that make the higher spending targets more attractive.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There is not sufficient time to achieve this goal, particularly given anti Tesla sentiment.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unknown unknowns
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
No current indications that there is instability that would lead to regime change.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
He could always fall from a window tonight?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Given the difficulty of actually implementing elections, there isn't sufficient time for this to come true.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Sham elections can be planned quickly, I guess?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think that the parliamentarians ruling about what can be included in the reconciliation doomed the bill.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps Trump has more leverage to push for results than I anticipate.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
AAA Gas prices are coming in much lower than($3.16)
Why might you be wrong?
Supply shock in the last weeks of July?