Hot summer in Europe & Africa - Ocean is very warm.
0.515216
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
Less than or equal to 1
80%
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
10%
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
3%
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Its difficult to say how this distribution maybe wrong given we experience one observation and not an mensurable. So I can be wring due to stochastic effects.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
38%
Yes
62%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Its at $3.160 and people are traveling less
Files
Why might you be wrong?
it can easily fluctuate from $3.160 to above $3.177
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 2.3%
20%
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
74%
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
6%
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
0%
More than or equal to 3.2%
Why do you think you're right?
It seems to be at 2.7% and we are in July
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Uncertain impact of tariffs
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
62%
Yes
38%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Warm summer
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Stochastic uncertainty
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
(-18%)
Less than or equal to 500
48%
(+1%)
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
23%
(+11%)
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
9%
(+6%)
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
There seems to have been a recent increase
Files
Why might you be wrong?
limited exposure to news
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
15%
(0%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
26%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
38%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
15%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Less than or equal to 500
47%
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
12%
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
3%
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
3%
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
Its roughly just over 500 cases per month between Jan and April. Now there is the expansion - so its likely to increase but not by much as political targets are depleting fast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I have not obtained the data a formally analyzed the trend.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Very little time to the end of July
Why might you be wrong?
It is something I haven't followed well.