256th
Accuracy Rank

NiftyForecasts

David
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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025? 0.412273
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026? -0.000887
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025? 0.855443
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? -0.004862
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026? -0.000108
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025? 0.00127
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025? 0.102886
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025? 0.047569
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025? 0.000609
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? 0.000006
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? 0.001343
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea? -0.004945
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025? -0.257583
Aug 08, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres? 0.012884
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? 0.863015
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025? -0.000098
Jun 21, 2025 11:50PM UTC Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025? 0.0546
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