There's less than 2 months left, so this seems unlikely. However, I want to be somewhat less confident than crowd that this will not happen.
-0.166404
Relative Brier Score
124
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 21 | 153 | 124 | 889 |
| Comments | 3 | 8 | 64 | 63 | 116 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 20 | 43 | 30 | 116 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 86 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Yes
95%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Further extremising (10%-->5%) as the crowd moves towards no (29%-->19%). We are now very close to the holiday season, no time for new explrt controls to appear anymore.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Oct 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 62%
0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
4%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
96%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Seems like latest reports showed a small increase from last year's 70.2% – 70.4% in Q2 this year. Seems very unlikely there's gonna be a drop.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
It's actually 70.3 for both Q1 & Q2: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/203686
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
6%
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
62%
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
32%
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?
- Europe currently was +18.4 at end of August
- US aid is currently static at low values, while European is high and maybe increasing – meaning Europe will gain
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Points:
- There's only two more months left in the year.
- Germany gave Ukraine HIMARS in 2024 (source), other European countries have not provided any at any point if I'm not mistaken (the US of course has done so earlier)
- Currently there's reports of Poland acquiring HIMARS for itself (source), but no reports of plans to provide those to Ukraine.
Assessment: Before end-of-year is too soon.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If I understand the resolution criteria correctly, only an announcement is enough – delivery is not needed for resolution. An announcement can come quite suddenly.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
38%
(0%)
Yes
62%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Going low based on a very convincing argument presented by @michal_dubrawski in this comment. The argument is basically that there has been no advance warning about this, but in the Djibouti case there was an advance warning 11 months before a military base construction started. This means there's only 3 months left for an advance warning to appear.
Why might you be wrong?
There are ways this could resolve positively without such an early advance warning. For example if an existing port would be converted for Chinese military use, that could progress more suddenly than the Djibouti case.