Confirmed previous forecast
0.198326
Relative Brier Score
92
Forecasts
8
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 92 | 92 | 92 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 73 | 73 | 73 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts,
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology
Most Active Topics:
Russia-Europe
New Prediction
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
100%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Moving to 0 percent chance of happening - no evidence of it, too much else going on with looming USG shutdown taking the administration's attention, two days is not enough time for this to happen given where things stand
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+1%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(-1%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Last days, looks like we have our answer
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
(0%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
99%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
1%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files