Confirmed previous forecast
0.409539
Relative Brier Score
70
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 70 | 70 | 70 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 59 | 59 | 59 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts,
Geopolitical Security,
Emerging Technology,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Open RAN
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 30, 2025 06:18PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
55%
(+45%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2025 to Mar 30, 2026
45%
(-45%)
No
Sep 30, 2025 to Mar 30, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Breakthroughs with Trump's proposed peace plan.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Media buzz could be a flash in the pan.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 19, 2025 10:11PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(-20%)
Yes
Sep 19, 2025 to Mar 19, 2026
90%
(+20%)
No
Sep 19, 2025 to Mar 19, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Updating forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Updating forecast
Files
Question: Why the move from 70% to 90% "No?" It might be the correct forecast, but wondering what caused the change.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 15, 2025 10:46PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
55%
Yes
Aug 15, 2025 to Feb 15, 2026
45%
No
Aug 15, 2025 to Feb 15, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
In President Trump's first term, he made a big push with the Abraham Accords, whereby Morocco, UAE, and Bahrain recognized Israel. Throughout his second term, Trump has shown a penchant for swift action and he has recently raised the topic of normalization of Israel in the Middle East as a pathway to peace in the region:
Also, given the structure of the question, it only takes one country for this question to resolve as yes. For these reasons, I am moving away from the crowd.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Arab nations in the list have had long histories of opposition to Israel. In the eyes of many, Israel's reputation has suffered as fighting continues in Gaza. The timeline is quite tight.
Files
This appears to be a good analysis of the background, situation and history. Yet, the prediction came later in your further updates. You reversed course in probability. Crowds can be caught up in groupthink, so it's a good thing not to pay too much attention to the crowd; a lot of the crowd may also be inexperienced forecasters. (your statement "...I am moving away from the crowd.") The best forecasters I know, rarely look at what the crowd is doing - they don't forecast based on what the crowd is doing, or not doing.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+9%)
Less than or equal to 1
1%
(-8%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Updating forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Updating forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Maintaining forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maintaining forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Updating forecast
Files