155th
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Hinterhunter

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025? -0.001231
Jun 21, 2025 11:50PM UTC Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025? 0.085
Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025) 0.010447
May 31, 2025 05:00PM UTC On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? -0.063045
May 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 28, 2025 and May 28, 2025) -0.00016
Apr 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 28, 2025 and Apr 28, 2025) 0.001152
Apr 28, 2025 01:00PM UTC Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025? -0.09427
Apr 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 4, 2025 and Apr 4, 2025) -0.004058
Apr 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 2, 2025 and Apr 2, 2025) 0.000561
Apr 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 1, 2025 and Apr 1, 2025) 0.01691
Mar 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 28, 2025 and Mar 28, 2025) 0.0
Mar 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 4, 2025 and Mar 4, 2025) -0.005918
Mar 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2025 and Mar 2, 2025) 0.000493
Mar 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 1, 2025 and Mar 1, 2025) -0.070429
Feb 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 28, 2025 and Feb 28, 2025) 0.0
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024? 0.01617
Feb 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 4, 2025 and Feb 4, 2025) -0.008903
Feb 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2025 and Feb 2, 2025) 0.000265
Feb 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 1, 2025 and Feb 1, 2025) -0.128648
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024? -0.225273
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