tweaking
0.368941
Relative Brier Score
295
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 26 | 349 | 295 | 2659 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 37 | 35 | 976 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 25 | 84 | 66 | 342 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 159 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(-7%)
Less than 30 days
14%
(+4%)
30 days
3%
(+1%)
31-60 days
2%
(+1%)
61-90 days
6%
(+1%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
2%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
98%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
25%
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
65%
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
10%
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?
Currently about $18Bn
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Making a multilateral decision to deploy forces on the ground seems very unlikely before the end of the year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Limited troops could be deployed or specific objectives
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The Trump administration is not too keen on AI regulation.
I do not see it happen.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A spectacular incident involving AI may force the government to implement AI regulation.
Files
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Oct 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
"Kate Adamala, a synthetic biologist at the University of Minnesota, tells Nature that the pursuit of mirror-image life is not worth the risk. “There is no benefit of mirror biology that couldn’t be achieved other ways with normal biology,” she says"
Kate Adamala, a synthetic biologist at the University of Minnesota, tells Nature that the pursuit of mirror-image life is not worth the risk. “There is no benefit of mirror biology that couldn’t be achieved other ways with normal biology,” she says
since there is no benefit in mirror biology but major risk. It would be likely that this would be classified as dual use.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is a lot of hype on this topic. It may turn out to be harmless.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
tweaking
Why might you be wrong?