JJMLP

This is still unlikely - cyber-attack are common but unlikely to produce kinetic effects.

There are currently 20 cases, only 3 in December. So far 3 in January.

this would lead to potentially 80 cases over a year.

The trend seems to go down with 3 in both December and January (not a complete month).

Maximum probability in the 60-79 range.

reducing passage of time

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/9/chads-presidency-attacked-coup-attempt-boko-haram-or-drunk-fighters

"Assault on presidential complex comes amid visit by China’s foreign minister, withdrawal of French troops, and instability caused by armed groups."

Coup attempt in Chad. French troops leaving may create more power vacuum. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/09/lebanon-elects-joseph-aoun-as-president-after-two-year-vacancy

https://www.riotimesonline.com/latin-american-country-risk-a-comprehensive-overview-of-2024/

"Argentina: 1,044 points (high risk)

Ecuador: 1,207 points (high risk)

Bolivia: 1,801 points (very high risk)"

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/world-bank-staff-question-ethiopia-debt-assessment-reached-with-imf-memo-shows-2024-12-23/

"The DSA said that some export-related indicators pointed to both liquidity and solvency pressures.

In October, Eyob told Reuters that writedowns were unavoidable and the DSA showed a solvency issue. Investors, in rejecting the assessment, have also slammed a government proposal that indicates an 18% haircut."

More chance of default for Ethiopia compared to the other countries.

Similarly to the similar question about Ukraine, I would expect a slow decrease of the perceived thread from Russia. 

https://securityconference.org/en/munich-security-report-2024/munich-security-index-2024/

"Russia’s war on Ukraine marked a Zeitenwende across G7 countries. But two years on, there are signs that its impact on risk perceptions is tempering. The threat from Russia and related risks still rank considerably higher than in 2021, but compared to last year, they have dropped in the risk index. Meanwhile, perceptions of nontraditional risks remain high. People around the world continue to be most concerned about environmental threats, while risk perceptions of mass migration as a result of war or climate change, radical Islamic terrorism, and organized crime have heightened"

I would expect the trend to continue, likely landing above 20%.