updating
1.281511
Relative Brier Score
2680
Forecasts
159
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 24 | 331 | 316 | 2680 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 37 | 35 | 976 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 22 | 69 | 66 | 342 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 159 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Microelectronics,
Manufacturing,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran-VNSAs
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
12%
(-2%)
30 days
0%
(-3%)
31-60 days
5%
(+3%)
61-90 days
8%
(+2%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
50%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
40%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
15%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
25%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
8%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
92%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-10%)
Yes
85%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
reducing slightly
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
updating
Why might you be wrong?