Forecasted Questions
Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 03:28PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 28, 2025 03:28PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 85% | 10% | +75% | +0% |
| No | 15% | 90% | -75% | +0% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 03:28PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 28, 2025 03:28PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 7% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 91% | 93% | -2% | +0% |
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 03:28PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 28, 2025 03:28PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026 | Dec 28, 2025 | 1% | +0% | 0% |
| No | 99% | Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026 | Dec 28, 2025 | 99% | +0% | 0% |
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 04:45PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 04:45PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 13% | -12% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 88% | +12% | +1% |
How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 12:28AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 02, 2025 12:28AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 18 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| 17 | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| 16 or fewer | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 12:38AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 02, 2025 12:38AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 95% | +4% | +1% |
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 09:47PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 02, 2025 09:47PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | 3% | +10% | -1% |
| No | 87% | 97% | -10% | +1% |
Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 03, 2025 01:48AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 03, 2025 01:48AM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 96% | 75% | +21% | +6% |
| No | 4% | 25% | -21% | -6% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 05:57PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Dec 04, 2025 05:57PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 4% | +21% | +1% |
| No | 75% | 96% | -21% | -1% |