LogicCurve

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1st Generation Superforecaster® - Good Judgment Inc, circa 2013/14.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Feb 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026? 0.000912
Jan 09, 2026 05:00PM UTC Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025? -0.000052
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026? -0.024625
Dec 11, 2025 09:34AM UTC Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive? 0.03703
Oct 12, 2025 03:27PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 1, 2025 and Oct 12, 2025) 0.344441
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025? -0.002129
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025? 0.009082
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? 0.398204
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025? -0.000429
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 15, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) -0.054182
Jul 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 4, 2025 and Jul 4, 2025) 0.00069
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? 0.0
Jun 21, 2025 11:50PM UTC Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025? 0.149933
Jun 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 4, 2025 and Jun 4, 2025) -0.000426
May 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 4, 2025 and May 4, 2025) -0.004603
Apr 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 4, 2025 and Apr 4, 2025) -0.006703
Apr 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 1, 2025 and Apr 1, 2025) -0.216516
Mar 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 4, 2025 and Mar 4, 2025) -0.004918
Mar 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 1, 2025 and Mar 1, 2025) -0.270986
Feb 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 4, 2025 and Feb 4, 2025) -0.010177
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