There are other things that the US is focused on rather than AI
-0.01644
Relative Brier Score
15
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 15 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Emerging Technology,
Quickfire Forecasts,
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Mirror Life,
Biotech,
Russia-Europe
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
Yes
87%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
AI could make huge strides in the wrong direction and this could set the US to make restrictions.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
92%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The FDA is making huge strides but not quick enough especially in this political climate.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Not sure, the FDA could succeed in spite of the political climate.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
40%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
13%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
87%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
While 2025 is not over, it seems very unlikely that they will reach a compromise and have a ceasefire go into effect before the new year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
President Trump has met with Ukraine and will be meeting with Russia soon so it's possible that the U.S. can facilitate a ceasefire before the new year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
14%
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
24%
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
62%
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?
Clearly the U.S. funds have stopped since Donald Trump has taken office, if the European funds have continued since February 2025 then there is a high chance that they have surpassed the U.S.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
While Europe may have continued to fund Ukraine, they might have decreased how much they had been giving so they could not have donated more than the U.S.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?