Confirmed previous forecast
0.018831
Relative Brier Score
213
Forecasts
24
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 33 | 182 | 1691 | 213 | 3014 |
| Comments | 3 | 58 | 165 | 63 | 294 |
| Questions Forecasted | 30 | 34 | 73 | 34 | 153 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 3 | 24 | 256 | 24 | 712 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast will expire on Mar 3, 2025
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 3, 2025 to Aug 3, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Feb 3, 2025 to Aug 3, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
(-3%)
Yes
86%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Nothing new
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
18%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
36%
(+3%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
31%
(-1%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
12%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
26 cases so far, latest one on 24 January. The election is in less than 3 weeks, but the data seem to have no connection with that event (last cases were all about Ukraine).
Extrapolation would be middle bin (365/126*26= 75).
https://euvsdisinfo.eu/disinformation-cases/?disinfo_language[]=German
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Random numbers.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
32%
(0%)
Implantable Devices
32%
(0%)
Environmental Sensors
32%
(0%)
Personal Electronics
4%
(0%)
Advanced Computing
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files