x
0.226466
Relative Brier Score
51
Forecasts
15
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 48 | 191 | 2191 | 2054 | 4855 |
| Comments | 13 | 59 | 603 | 568 | 799 |
| Questions Forecasted | 45 | 45 | 101 | 89 | 208 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 4 | 139 | 127 | 815 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-6%)
Less than $21.0 billion
45%
(+6%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(+48%)
Yes
50%
(-48%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Bad news :-( Shootings and air strikes in several locations. I had not expected that at all.
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/thailand-luftangriff-kambodscha-100.html
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
50%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
(-2%)
Yes
87%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Jan 6, 2026
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Dec 6, 2025 to Jun 6, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Can Trump end this, before we get over 20? Affirming 50:50.
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/thailand-kambodscha-gefechte-trump-100.html
Why might you be wrong?
x