Confirmed previous forecast
2.637452
Relative Brier Score
50
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts,
Emerging Technology
Most Active Topics:
Emerging Tech - AI,
Open RAN,
Mirror Life
New Prediction
By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 250
0%
(-10%)
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
15%
(-5%)
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
55%
(+15%)
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
30%
(0%)
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
Historical trends.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Not using current data or accounting for deviations from the past.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 500
0%
(-80%)
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
15%
(+5%)
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
75%
(+75%)
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
I assume it would be likely to be either a seize fire or heightened activity, and the indication of the former seems more remote.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Potential for a cessation could be higher than expected.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 500
80%
(0%)
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
10%
(0%)
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1251
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+90%)
Less than or equal to 1
10%
(-40%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(-50%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Agreed. US landed major hurricanes are generally later in the hurricane season.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The first named storms in the Atlantic this season generally moved away from land and weakened.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Less than 600
15%
(0%)
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
50%
(0%)
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
16%
(0%)
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
9%
(0%)
More than or equal to 690
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(+35%)
Yes
35%
(-35%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Significant June seizures.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
No new information.
Files