Confirmed previous forecast
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 28 | 110 | 1692 | 1595 | 2218 |
| Comments | 11 | 48 | 671 | 608 | 685 |
| Questions Forecasted | 24 | 45 | 94 | 89 | 97 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 6 | 185 | 159 | 318 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Yes
88%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
8%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
80%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
8%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
5%
(0%)
30 days
5%
(0%)
31-60 days
5%
(0%)
61-90 days
20%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
0%
(-8%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
70%
(+20%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
30%
(-12%)
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?
There's another update from our resolution source. No change in the amount of U.S. support and the lowest amount of new aid from European countries since the start of the war. The difference between European nations and the U.S. is now a bit above 23 Billion euros. Data is until October 2025.
https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/ukraine-support-tracker-europe-fails-to-offset-us-aid-drop/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A surge in the last 3 months? But I don't think that is happening.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-7%)
Yes
95%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing after reading more about the topic.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
72%
(+37%)
Yes
28%
(-37%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think we’re already at about ten deaths now, and it looks like the Thai military has no intention of stopping the fighting.
"Cambodia says Thailand’s military resumed attacks on Tuesday morning in border regions, killing at least seven people. Thailand says at least three soldiers killed in the attacks."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/12/9/thailand-cambodia-live
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The conflict could be frozen again if Trump steps in. It would probably only hold for a short time, but that might be long enough for this question to end with a “no.”
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files