Reducing my forecasts for Moldova, Armenia and Georgia because of the passage of time.
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 13 | 275 | 285 | 457 |
| Comments | 0 | 11 | 259 | 269 | 320 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 13 | 26 | 27 | 38 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 57 | 59 | 129 |
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-1%)
Moldova
4%
(-1%)
Armenia
0%
(-1%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden Russian breakthrough in Ukraine could embolden Putin to intervene in other countries he considers to be in his 'sphere of influence'.
Files
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Star Commenter - Dec 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
With just 5 hours to go, this is virtually inpossible now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An end of year deployment.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
This is basically impossible now, with just a few hours left to go.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A supernatural event at the end of the year?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
This is basically impossible now, with just a few hours to go.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A “surprise end of year deployment”
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Thanks to @DimaKlenchin for the useful map. On the basis of that map, and recent activity not too far from Khartoum, it wouldn't be too surprising if the RSF did recapture Khartoum, but the timeframe for this question is short and I imagine that Khartoum is heavily defended and fortified.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Rapid breakthroughs can happen in wars.
Files
The thing is, the distance to Khartoum hasn't changed at all in two months.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming my forecasts. Trump's threats against Greenland probably won't materialise in the form of military action, though an acquisition or compact of free association is more likely.
If the US was to take Greenland by force, it would likely lead to the dissolution of NATO in all but name. An alternative defence alliance would still likely provide security guarantees to the Baltic States, but those guarantees would be weaker without US participation.
Therefore, despite the passage of time, I am confirming my forecasts.
Why might you be wrong?
As above, US military action in Greenland could mean Putin takes advantage of the resulting strife within NATO.