following the crowd now and will update later
0.559724
Relative Brier Score
375
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 41 | 41 | 399 | 375 | 1178 |
| Comments | 5 | 5 | 66 | 50 | 156 |
| Questions Forecasted | 41 | 41 | 93 | 81 | 203 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 26 |
| Definitions | |||||
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Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
following the crowd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Malaysia has confirmed a national carbon tax starting in 2026, first targeting steel and energy, announced in its 2025/2026 budget package. Bosnia and Herzegovina plans to launch a national ETS to avoid CBAM-related export losses.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
So far, it seems only one or two fatalities have been reported. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-demands-apology-cambodia-over-landmine-incident-2025-11-12/
The ongoing conflict escalated or new conflicts broke down? very unlikely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The ongoing conflict escalated or new conflicts broke down
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Too many requirements for this "control"; July 2026 might be too soon to be possible...
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Not likely by 31 March 2026. RSF gains have been concentrated far west and southwest (Darfur, Kordofan), including the recent capture of El-Fasher and pushing east into Kordofan, rather than toward the capital.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
SAF collapse or internal split that suddenly weakens the defense of Khartoum?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Given the dramatic growth in AI/ML medical devices generally, it seems likely that at least one manufacturer working with an LLM or foundation model may take advantage of the updated guidance and submit a premarket application before early 2026.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Even though the FDA has issued draft guidance for AI/ML devices and TPLC-based oversight, significant regulatory and technical challenges remain for LLM-based clinical-decision support. No indicator of a successful case yet.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Almost impossible by 1 Feb 2026 to get 4 countries to recognize the State of Palestine
Why might you be wrong?