Confirmed previous forecast
0.802574
Relative Brier Score
110
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 67 | 59 | 110 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 36 | 36 | 36 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Emerging Technology,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Artificial Intelligence,
Iran: Threats & Influence
Most Active Topics:
Africa,
Emerging Tech - AI,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
9%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
91%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 14, 2025 11:44AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
67%
(+38%)
Yes
Oct 14, 2025 to Apr 14, 2026
33%
(-38%)
No
Oct 14, 2025 to Apr 14, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Awaiting clarification
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
9%
(-10%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
91%
(+10%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting as the picture becomes clearer.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 9, 2025 05:09PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
29%
(-4%)
Yes
Oct 9, 2025 to Apr 9, 2026
71%
(+4%)
No
Oct 9, 2025 to Apr 9, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Adjustment
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
19%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
81%
(+1%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Updating based on reading comments.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 12, 2025 05:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
33%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026
67%
(0%)
No
Sep 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
80%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Updating
Why might you be wrong?