Things looks stable for now.
0.139402
Relative Brier Score
40
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 14 | 258 | 40 | 1011 |
| Comments | 0 | 8 | 32 | 16 | 40 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 11 | 30 | 14 | 85 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 108 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Feb 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Feb 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Trump will try to push Egypt to accept Gaza relocation it may try to use economic measures.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 28, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
80%
(0%)
No
Feb 28, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Less than or equal to 59
10%
(-5%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
40%
(+5%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
40%
(+2%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
extrapolating current trend
Files
Why might you be wrong?
New government may have different aproach toward Russia and as a result be more or less targeted, however there was no significant rise before elections so new government may not matter that much.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
With over 8% drop yesterday nvidia is almost 20% behind Apple. It is only 3 months until resolution so there are some chances that recent trend will be reversed but I think those are slim.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Better sentiment on markets may help nvidia
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Togo
15%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?
I am keeping my forecast, will reduce with passage of time if no significant events will happen. There are two indirect events that may influence my thinking about the question.
If there is permanent ceasefire or end of war in Ukraine Russia may refocus on other directions and have some spare manpower and other capacities to invest in Africa, however it will probably take time until even if signed ceasefire will allow Russia to use additonal resources.
I think that that fate of Russian bases in Syria may have significant influence on Russian capacities in Africa. If expelled even if will try move most resources to Lybia it will take time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
End of 2026 may not be that distant and end of war in Ukraine if really happens may not affect this question in this timeframe
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
It needs to be confirmed by two organizations which means it does not need to be global consensus