vpsays

This would be seen as an act of war, so it seems unlikely for an adversary to resort to this, but I think the chance isn't zero. There's enough current geopolitical instability and risks to make this a non-zero chance:

- American satellites are subject to daily "reversible" attacks (such as jamming, blinding, and cyber operations) by adversaries, even though permanent disabling hasn't been publicly confirmed.

- Escalating ASAT capabilities of major powers (Russia, China, India, U.S.) continue to advance anti-satellite technology, with increased maneuvering, testing, and threats.

- Rising tensions, especially around major geopolitical flashpoints (Taiwan, Ukraine, South China Sea), keep analysts concerned about escalation and potential kinetic or non-kinetic attacks—especially if conflict broadens.

updating, only a week left

Gallop is currently at 43% as of May 2025. And given the typical downward trajectory of presidential polling, it's more likely this will stay about the same or go down. Also taking into account current events including Iran and ICE protests.

Spreading the probabilities fairly even across the board. Depends on if there is another outbreak like the one in TX before Oct 2025. The last time there was a big outbreak was in 2019 at ~1300.  We're currently at ~1K, so we'd need another one to hit numbers greater than that. Given the lower trend in vaccination rates, and the administration's current public health stance,  I think the U.S. is in a position to beat the 2019 numbers.

Predicting a low probability given the EU's policy position to phase out Russian gas, including a ban on new contracts and spot purchases by the end of 2025. Only a few member states are still reliant on Russian gas via TurkStream, so I suspect quarterly import volumes will remain well below the 15 bcm threshold. There are plenty of alternative suppliers (Algeria, US, Qatar, etc) that the EU could lean on besides Russia. (Reuters)

Slight adjustment upward from my earlier forecast.

The pressure is on for Europe to fill the void left by the U.S. aid freeze,  which makes this plausible. I'm hesitant to start higher than 40% for a couple reasons: 

• European countries are looking to build up their own stockpiles before transferring them to Ukraine. 
• While plausible given the urgency -- Germany committed to sending Ukraine HIMARS rocket systems in 2024, and according to Forbes, the U.K., Germany, Italy and France have given Ukraine 25 tracked M270 launchers -- but the latest reports suggest production delays for these kinds of systems in 2025 (e.g., Estonia). 
• Europe's HIMARS-compatible systems require procuring materials from the U.S., and U.S. export controls may hinder  progress.
• It doesn't seem that Ukraine is using their existing U.S.  arsenal at max, so they may have enough to last them through at least later this year, perhaps why European packages in 2025 have focused on artillery and ammunition.