The timeframe is too short and not consistent with current progress.
-0.393774
Relative Brier Score
207
Forecasts
131
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 11 | 11 | 208 | 11 | 576 |
| Comments | 12 | 12 | 279 | 12 | 502 |
| Questions Forecasted | 10 | 10 | 45 | 10 | 91 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 126 | 1 | 369 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I am not going to 0 because there is an outside chance that a country will make a premature announcement that does not reflect tru AGI in order to create publicity and interest in their country. A Gulf State country is unlikely to make such an announcement, but it could be used for hype.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
81%
0
17%
1
2%
2 or more
Why do you think you're right?
This is an initial quick forecast based on most Cat. 3 hurricanes forming after the end of July and so far this year not predicted to be severe.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I haven't done a deep enough dive into the data. ENSO neutral to El Niñ0 is expected in June and July.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
19
0%
18
0%
17
100%
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
Time is up on this question. There are no immediate moves for recognition.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Not going to happen now.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The time is too short and the RSF is not in a position to take control. The RSF is in a perilous period.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Black swan. Unexpected government collapse.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
84%
Yes
16%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I am forecasting above the crowd due to the likelihood of an imminent strike on Iran by the US. In such a scenario, unless the Iranian regime is decapitated, the Houthis are likely to make retaliatory strikes. I will lower the forecast if the immediate threat of action against Iran passes.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The US may not strike Iran and/or the Houthis may decide that with the US armada in the region it is a bad time to provoke a response.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
93%
Yes
7%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Delcy is adept at keeping the Chavistas and Trump happy enough, that ousting her would not be in their interests. The pro-democracy forces don't have access to power, particularly if the US does not side with them and is happy to cut deals with the current administration. The time is short and she has survived the most vulnerable time period after Maduro's capture.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is still as volatile situation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
98%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The main actors that come to mind are Russia, China, and North Korea. Russia is not seeking direct conflict with the US. China is extremely unlikely to invade Taiwan before 2027, especially with the shakeup of their generals. As long as they are not involved in an existential war, it would not be wise for China to disable a US satellite. North Korea has been relatively calm and Trump and Kim are not adversarial now.
An unknown is Iran, which could try to attack a US satellite if they believed that their regime is under all-out attack. Even if this is the case, their ability to hit a satellite is unlikely. The link is old, but the capabilities are unlikely to have significantly changed and their tracking abilities are likely to have been greatly diminished by the Israeli attacks of the last year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There has been a lot of chaos in the last year so forecasting with high certainty is dangerous.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Slight shift up on 2 or more to conform to the base rate.
Why might you be wrong?
We have a very small N in terms of qualifying years and no clear signals as to what drives early and severe hurricanes. At six months out we don't even have precise knowledge as to where we will be regarding ENSO type, severity, and change.