No major changes from my first forecast one month ago. The global economy and unemployment rates have remained relatively stable. With only one month remaining, I don't expect any shocks, and if they occur, are unlikely to throw the numbers for the entire year into the sub 70 category.
-0.718836
Relative Brier Score
552
Forecasts
362
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 11 | 207 | 194 | 552 |
| Comments | 0 | 12 | 280 | 267 | 479 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 11 | 46 | 40 | 84 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 6 | 126 | 125 | 362 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Quickfire Forecasts,
Emerging Technology
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran-VNSAs,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Future Bowl
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
2%
(-5%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
98%
(+5%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If numbers are revised.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(-1%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Moving down a point on Lithuania since the border with Belarus has been reopened. Tensions still exist but the short term flare up has subsided.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
16 months is a long time to have absolute certainty.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I am holding at 3%. Trump announced a visit to China to meet with Xi for next April. Though events could intervene between now and then, it is a positive sign and reduces my forecast of major escalation between the US and China and between China and Taiwan during this time period. Since I consider a US/China/Taiwan conflict to be the most likely route to offensive action in space, positive relations between the US and China keep my forecast low
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Even if the US and China maintain peaceful relations until the proposed summit in April, 8 months would still remain in the question timeframe. I don't foresee Russia and the US getting involved in a space conflict as long as Trump is president, considering his positive relations with Putin, but there is a remote chance that Russia could try to disable a US satellite in retaliation for the US giving satellite imagery to Ukraine to help conduct attacks against Russia. North Korea may also have the ability to conduct an attack on a satellite and is a non-zero but near-zero threat.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I'm updating my forecast and don't see any significant reason to change it based on developments this month.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Since this question includes panzootic and epiphytotic events of high consequence, pathways to yes answer are increased. I have less knowledge about panzootic and epiphytotic biological events, so forecast with a high degree of uncertainty.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
I'm tempted to go to 100% but will hold at 99%. Continuing settler violence in the West Bank and turbulence with Netanyahu make this an extremely difficult time for Muslim-majority country to normalize relations with Israel.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Netanyahu asked the President of Israel for a pardon. Some cracks in his leadership are apparent. If he is ousted as prime minister and a more moderate leader emerges, chance of normalizing relations should increase. That is a lot of ifs, so I consider it highly unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
61%
(-13%)
Less than 30 days
2%
(-3%)
30 days
7%
(+5%)
31-60 days
7%
(+3%)
61-90 days
23%
(+8%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
If a ceasefire goes into effect in 2025 it is unlikely to be just a temporary humanitarian pause for Christmas since Russia celebrated Christmas based on the Julian calendar, thus on January 7th. There would be significant pressure not to acknowledge the Ukrainian Orthodox Church's change to celebrate on the 25th of December, like the West. A Christmas or Easter ceasefire is more likely to be short, than a comprehensive peace. Since I am nearly ruling out a Christmas pause, that means I consider the most likely path to a ceasefire to be true progress on an end to the war. I consider this scenario highly unlikely by the end of the year, however, if it does happen, there is a significant chance that it would be due to a true breakthrough in negotiations.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A peace that goes into effect in the current month is likely to be the result of a political collapse in either Russia or Ukraine. This is highly unlikely, but in such a scenario, it is possible that the result would be a permanent abandonment of the war.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(-1%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
I'm at 2% for Moldova, which is lower than the crowd. It is an extraordinarily difficult path from Crimea through swamp land along a single road with many bridges through Odessa and on to Moldova. Russia has no naval power in the Black Sea. Internally Moldova is relatively stable until April 2027 with no major elections. Romania has a strong imperative to defend Moldova. Russia is too ties down in Ukraine and their speed of advance has been glacial in the last couple of years.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An internal collapse in Moldova would be problematic, but still doesn't answer how Russia would get enough soldiers beyond the ~1500 in Transnistria to engage in a fight.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming 0% based on no breakthroughs towards peace with Russian a mild winter so far. The 14 day forecast for Budapest shows no daily temperatures below freezing.
Why might you be wrong?
Unknown unknowns.