probahilliby

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Contact me at [email protected]

Certified Superforecaster® at Good Judgment Inc. (Ranked #1 in 2025 Season); Metaculus Pro forecaster; forecaster for the RAND Forecasting Institute; culinarian; pharmacology.

"Surprisingly-resistant-to-regression-to-the-mean forecaster"

Questions everything but not a cynic.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 09, 2026 05:00PM UTC Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025? 0.038984
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025? -0.131984
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026? 0.005467
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025? 0.100177
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? 0.000206
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026? 0.063076
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025? 0.000252
Oct 12, 2025 03:27PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 1, 2025 and Oct 12, 2025) -0.00887
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025? 0.130487
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025? 0.046454
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025? 0.099363
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025? 0.100452
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025? 0.027082
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? 0.107486
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? 0.103225
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025? 0.17946
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea? 0.013921
Aug 12, 2025 03:00PM UTC What will the U.S. annual inflation rate be in July 2025? 0.005891
Aug 08, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres? 0.000444
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025? 0.015275
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