Other forecasters have already voiced the concerns I share the timeframe being too short and LLMs requiring a high degree of due diligence before approval is granted.
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some sort of sudden collaboration between AISI or equivalent or fast tracking of approval?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
0%
(0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
53%
(+31%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
47%
(-31%)
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?
On re-evaluation, I think that there is going to be some slowdown on the European front, especially with the new US admin posturing forcing the EU to be more self reliant. To add to this the new conflict in Sudan might create more instability in the broader Mediterranean region, prompting more investment there.
I think that the final tally will be in the ~28-30 billion range
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If current trends continue as per my last comment then more than 30 is also likely to happen.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Feels quite unlikely in this climate with peace proposals floating around.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Sudden show of resilience?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 62%
0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
0%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
100%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
No major changes as time grows short
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, professor of international relations at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, said the shooting shows "the conflict is spreading, expanding."
He believes that the ceasefire deal "for all intents and purposes is finished and was weak to begin with."
Ou Virak, founder and president of Future Forum, a Phnom Penh based think tank, said the strains and underlying grievances are "certainly not going to die down."
He stressed that Thailand's expected general election early next year and rising nationalistic fervor in Cambodia will make it difficult for both sides to dial down the tensions and turn the focus away from the border spat.
"The best outcome would likely be a continuation of the status quo for the next three or four months," Virak told DW.
Links: https://www.dw.com/en/whats-next-after-thailand-suspends-cambodia-ceasefire-pact/a-74750938
The point about the elections and the People's Party's incoming dissolution of parliament seems potent, and a party might start a conflict to distract. However, this election will only happen on 29 March 2026.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
Why do you think you're right?
With the massive compute investments, some company is bound to do this in the short term in the US.
Probably for non-US entities, there are going to be more restrictions, such as problems with chip access and publicizing their computing access. It also seems like China is playing the AI adoption game rather than the scaling for AGI game. So there is always a lag for Chinese models.
Why might you be wrong?
I might be wrong if there is some problem with the efficiency of adding more compute(marginal returns diminishing, for example). Another thing that comes up is the compute efficiency frontier.
Another reason might be the additional electricity required (although all companies seem to have safeguarded their access to grids by building data centres and often launching their own renewable energy projects to facilitate this.
Another reason why this might not come to pass is if it invites regulatory scrutiny or criticism. For example, some sort of a federal restriction or reporting requirement or military application might promote a stealthier approach.