| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 32 | 32 | 279 | 256 | 702 |
| Comments | 16 | 16 | 183 | 179 | 244 |
| Questions Forecasted | 29 | 29 | 73 | 61 | 164 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 34 |
| Definitions | |||||
On re-evaluation, I think that there is going to be some slowdown on the European front, especially with the new US admin posturing forcing the EU to be more self reliant. To add to this the new conflict in Sudan might create more instability in the broader Mediterranean region, prompting more investment there.
I think that the final tally will be in the ~28-30 billion range
If current trends continue as per my last comment then more than 30 is also likely to happen.
Feels quite unlikely in this climate with peace proposals floating around.
Sudden show of resilience?
Updating
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No major changes as time grows short
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Thitinan Pongsudhirak, professor of international relations at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, said the shooting shows "the conflict is spreading, expanding."
He believes that the ceasefire deal "for all intents and purposes is finished and was weak to begin with."
Ou Virak, founder and president of Future Forum, a Phnom Penh based think tank, said the strains and underlying grievances are "certainly not going to die down."
He stressed that Thailand's expected general election early next year and rising nationalistic fervor in Cambodia will make it difficult for both sides to dial down the tensions and turn the focus away from the border spat.
"The best outcome would likely be a continuation of the status quo for the next three or four months," Virak told DW.
Links: https://www.dw.com/en/whats-next-after-thailand-suspends-cambodia-ceasefire-pact/a-74750938
The point about the elections and the People's Party's incoming dissolution of parliament seems potent, and a party might start a conflict to distract. However, this election will only happen on 29 March 2026.
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Current lead is about 19 billion, I don't expect this to change hugely over the next 1 month.
EU monthly = 83/8 ≈ 10.4.
US monthly = 64/8 ≈ 8.
If it continues, lead is projected to grow by about 10. Now we have to factor in the US start-stop nature.
More news: Ukraine’s Air Force (PSU) would acquire between 120 and 150 of the Swedish-made Saab JAS-39E Gripen fighters.
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Why do you think you're right?
Other forecasters have already voiced the concerns I share the timeframe being too short and LLMs requiring a high degree of due diligence before approval is granted.
Why might you be wrong?
Some sort of sudden collaboration between AISI or equivalent or fast tracking of approval?