Heramb_42

Ultimately, intra-regional trade comes down to 3 factors:

a) Geopolitics:
I don't see any major changes that will make the nations trade with each other more, maybe something about the shipping transportation volatility(?). 
b) Trade barriers:
There have been steps, such as the African FTA in recent years and the general rerouting of products, in the wake of uncertainty due to US tariffs. However, it seems like the MENA region is very protected from US tariffs and has limited direct exposure; however, there are indirect effects, such as energy price volatilities, redirection of goods from tariff countries, and inflationary pressures.

On average, only around 5% of MENA exports go to the United States, and much of this consists of oil and gas, which are typically exempt from tariff measures.

c) Infrastructure:

This might include roads near shipping lanes, ports, and other measures that might to increase exports. I don't see any major improvements in the last one to two years that would cause a big spike, though.

One I did come across was the UAE-Morocco Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. The Ras El Hakima makeup project, whether uae is building a new smart city in Egypt. Saudi PIF investments into Egypt's economy as part of an agreement.

Khalid Ali Al-Sunaidi, assistant secretary-general for economic and development affairs at the GCC General Secretariat commented that " “He noted that intra-GCC merchandise trade reached around $146 billion in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 9.08 percent compared to 2023, and a ten-year average annual growth rate of non-oil goods of 5.3 percent,” 
Al-Sunaidi stated that the Secretariat believes the future of GCC trade relies on deepening institutional and legislative integration through the development of unified trade policies, updating shared legal and regulatory frameworks, and facilitating the flow of goods and services. 

Generally, I remain sceptical that these measures will result in a spike of nearly two and a half percent in one year, something we have not seen often before in the past data.

I would have gone for 0, but some world leaders have a habit of overselling what their country does

Way too short of a timeline

Going down due to passage of time and the general state of things in China economically