92nd
Accuracy Rank

LogicCurve

Karen Hagar
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0.070576

Relative Brier Score

279

Forecasts

167

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 9 53 307 279 512
Comments 14 67 658 633 792
Questions Forecasted 6 19 37 35 42
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 7 175 167 233
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I'm going to scale down a bit - Pathchat could be positioned and submitted as a diagnostic assistant, which would be less risky.  Further, Modella (owner of PathChat) may have already submitted to the FDA, privately. 

https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.07814

https://www.aha.org/lettercomment/2025-12-01-aha-letter-fda-ai-enabled-medical-devices

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Why might you be wrong?

Modella is still in research mode and has not privately submitted. 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Raising on: Putin showing little as far as compromise Re: Ukraine.  

https://time.com/7338115/putin-issues-warning-to-europe-russia-ukraine-peace-talks/

"The Russian leader also took aim at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s European allies, who have expressed support for helping Kyiv achieve a dignified peace deal. Accusing Europe of hindering the U.S.-led negotiations, Putin claimed they had put forward demands that are “absolutely unacceptable” to Russia and had obstructed the “entire peace process.” He argued that European governments have “no peaceful agenda.”

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Why might you be wrong?

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The RSF claims it has taken over parts of Khartoum, as the SAF denies this.  The USA has proposed a transition.  Raising "No" on USA continued involvement. 

US proposal for Sudan war calls for civil-led transition and full reform of military
A US proposal outlines a three-track plan to end Sudan’s brutal conflict, as warring sides disputed control of a town in the southern Kordofan region.

December 2, 2025

https://www.newarab.com/news/us-proposal-end-sudan-war-calls-civil-led-transition


RSF seizes control of strategic army base in Babanusa

December 2, 2025

KHARTOUM – Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Monday captured the largest remaining army garrison in West Kordofan State, overrunning the 22nd Infantry Division headquarters in Babanusa following a prolonged two-year siege, according to military sources and RSF statements.

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Why might you be wrong?

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I don't think the conflict will end prior to the spring of 2026.  However, while it is still continuing at this time, I'm not certain they are not incorporating a degree of restraint (due to Trump's recent visit).  Which restraint may not evolve to the level of 20 deaths between (Now - December 1, 2025 and a month and 1/2 from now).  

CFR - Conflict in Cambodia and Thailand Resumes—With No End in Sight 

December 1, 2025

https://www.cfr.org/article/conflict-cambodia-and-thailand-resumes-no-end-sight

"Now, there appears little prospect for a return to a ceasefire. In fact, the border conflict is likely to get worse.

The Thai military has little reason to tone down the conflict, as it empowers the armed forces, in advance of an upcoming March parliamentary election in the kingdom. By continuing to bolster nationalism, the armed forces may hope that that their actions boost support for pro-military parties in March, and prevent the progressive People’s Party (PP), from winning an absolute majority.

Cambodia also has little desire to withdraw. It fears looking weak, given almost universal anger among the Cambodian population about the ceasefire failure, which most in the country blame on Thailand. Meanwhile, the leadership in Phnom Penh has cultivated closer ties with the White House this year, after decades of isolation by the United States. Cambodia may hope that, if Thailand is viewed as the country that essentially ended the ceasefire—a deal touted by Trump—the U.S. administration may move even closer to Cambodia while stonewalling Thailand. The only challenge there: Thailand is a U.S. treaty ally and much bigger U.S. trading partner."

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Why might you be wrong?

Someone may blink...  and that will be it. 

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New Prediction
LogicCurve
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
19
0% (0%)
18
1% (-1%)
17
99% (+1%)
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?

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New Prediction
LogicCurve
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
19
0% (-1%)
18
2% (-1%)
17
98% (+2%)
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?

Update

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Why might you be wrong?

Update

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I sense I may be too low on this for "YES,"  however - if Ukraine & Russia strike a ceasefire or cease to rage war - the imminent need to equip the arsenal may not be as needed.  Waiting for the outcome of the Ukraine/Russia talks. 

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Why might you be wrong?

Ukraine and Russia continue to bombard each other, and Russia may continue to be a threat - (thus the need for NATO ) while a thorn in Putin's side to say the least.

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Guidance Re: chip-related export controls is strengthened under the Trump admin, while Biden era AI rules were rescinded. 

Department of Commerce Rescinds Biden-Era Artificial Intelligence Diffusion Rule, Strengthens Chip-Related Export Controls
May 12, 2025

https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-announces-rescission-biden-era-artificial-intelligence-diffusion-rule-strengthens

https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2025/05/us-commerce-department-announces-new-export-compliance-expectations-related-to-artificial-intelligence

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Why might you be wrong?

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New Badge
LogicCurve
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Nov 2025

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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