136th
Accuracy Rank

Quail

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Questions without qualms.

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2024 Season Stats

-0.058168

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 15 46 507 507 507
Comments 2 15 276 276 276
Questions Forecasted 15 46 88 88 88
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 2 43 43 43
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Quail made their 12th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
98% (0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Quail made their 12th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
99% (0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Quail made their 12th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
99% (0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?
Quail made their 5th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
45% (0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
50% (0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
4% (0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
1% (0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
New Prediction
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?
Quail made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
10% (0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
45% (0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
40% (0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
5% (0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?
Quail made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
95% (0%)
Less than $1 billion
5% (0%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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