Confirmed previous forecast
0.280249
Relative Brier Score
507
Forecasts
43
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 15 | 46 | 507 | 507 | 507 |
| Comments | 2 | 15 | 276 | 276 | 276 |
| Questions Forecasted | 15 | 46 | 88 | 88 | 88 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 43 | 43 | 43 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Emerging Technology,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Quickfire Forecasts,
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Most Active Topics:
Emerging Tech - AI,
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Africa,
Russia-Europe
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
50%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
10%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
45%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
40%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(0%)
Less than $1 billion
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files