News reports indicate that the RSF has looted and destroyed Khartoum. Many refugees who returned have left because of a lack of basic services. It doesn't seem to be much of a prize anymore. The RSF also has complete control of Darfur after the fall of el-Fasher, so the country may split in two.
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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| Comments | 0 | 8 | 76 | 76 | 76 |
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New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The RSF is continuing to attack Khartoum with drone strikes.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
1%
(-2%)
18
4%
(-3%)
17
95%
(+5%)
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
The only recent news articles since my last forecast involve growing support for Palestine in South Korea, but other remaining G20 countries do not seem likely to change their stance in the near future.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If there is a peace agreement between Israel and Palestine, more of these countries may be willing to recognize a Palestinian state.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-5%)
Yes
85%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
President Trump took credit for easing hostilities between Cambodia and Thailand on 11/21/25 after speaking by phone with both prime ministers. However, the ceasefire agreement does not resolve the reasons for the longstanding border dispute between the two countries.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The situation may continue to stay calm, but could flare up at any moment.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
100%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Weekly average imports from Russia have dropped slightly to 375 million cubic meters. At this pace, the total for Q3 and Q4 will be 13.039 million cubic meters. Weekly imports would have to reach nearly 1,200 million cubic meters for the last 5 weeks of the year to get to 19,000.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There could be a sudden surge in demand or a peace deal with Ukraine.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
60%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
19
3%
18
7%
17
90%
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
Of the remaining 5 countries that have not recognized the State of Palestine, South Korea and Italy seem the most likely candidates, but an additional 3 countries would be needed to get to 17. This seems unlikely unless a peace deal with a two-state solution is reached.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The U.S. might recognize Palestine if Trump thinks this would help him secure a peace deal. This could cause additional countries, such as Japan, South Korea, and Italy to follow suit.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
As of yesterday (11/13) CNN and other sources reported that a Cambodian villager was killed by Thai soldiers. Thailand suspended the two countries' peace agreement on Monday, after several Thai soldiers were wounded by a Cambodian land mine. Both sides accuse each other of opening fire. This incident increases the probability that more deaths would occur.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Things could calm down again, but the current volatile situation indicates that forecasters should continue to monitor news accounts about the conflict.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
It seems unlikely that this would happen in such a short timeframe, given news reports that the FDA does not yet have a framework for evaluating medical devices that incorporate LLMs. See, for example, https://ldi.upenn.edu/our-work/research-updates/ai-in-health-care-and-the-fdas-blind-spot/
Why might you be wrong?
There would need to be a technical breakthrough that makes LLM output more predictable and focused on advice that would be useful for a specific audience (e.g., general bystanders vs. clinical professionals).