Sudan's government moved back to Khartoum on January 12, so they are more likely to defend it from new attacks by the Rapid Support Forces.
-0.424479
Relative Brier Score
83
Forecasts
9
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 3 | 83 | 80 | 83 |
| Comments | 3 | 4 | 85 | 82 | 85 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 3 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Definitions | |||||
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Rapid Support Forces might decide that Khartoum has become a more attractive target to attack, since the official government is there.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(-1%)
18
1%
(-3%)
17
99%
(+4%)
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
It seems less likely that countries will change their positions, since the ceasefire in Gaza seems to be holding.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the ceasefire breaks down, some additional G20 countries may decide to recognize the state of Palestine
Files
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Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Less than $21.0 billion
100%
(+20%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
0%
(-15%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?
Final total in the FY 2026 NDAA for Space Force RDT&E and O&M is $22.286 billion. (Passed by the Senate on 12/17/25 and signed by the President on 12/18/25.)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I believe this question is already decided based on the listed criteria.
Files
I'm going by the following sentence:
This question will resolve according to the appropriated amount in the FY2026 NDAA or according to the appropriated amount in a potential FY26 Continuing Resolution (CR) and will remain open until the NDAA or CR is passed.
I agree that the use of the term "appropriated" in this sentence is not correct, but the NDAA has been passed, and the amounts in the table below that sentence are from the funding tables in the NDAA for previous years.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+30%)
Yes
10%
(-30%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Death toll is continuing to rise and may reach 20 soon.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump is planning to intervene and may be able to calm hostilities.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-25%)
Less than $21.0 billion
80%
(+20%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
15%
(+5%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?
The conference version of the NDAA for FY 2026 has been released, putting the Space Force RDT&E budget at $16.616 billion and O&M budget at $5.670 billion, for a total of $22.286 billion. Thus, the most likely outcome is now the $21.0 billion to $22.5 billion range.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Several amendments have been proposed, so there is still a chance that the amount may change before final passage.
Files
Comment deleted on Dec 11, 2025 03:16PM UTC
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(+20%)
Yes
40%
(-20%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Today, the New York Times reports that at least 10 people have been killed in a new wave of fighting.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The conflict could die down before reaching 20 fatalities.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Although the FDA has approved devices with AI/ML capability, no medical devices with LLM capability have been submitted for approval yet. Approvals usually take 90-180 days, based on the type of device. Thus, it seems very unlikely that that one would be approved by March 31.
Why might you be wrong?
A breakthrough device with obvious utility might be approved quickly.