Unfortunately, considering these kinds of military exercises were just performed in December 2025, i am giving a high probability rate to the possibility of more incursions to Taiwan´s Contiguos Zone.
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Relative Brier Score
21
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 21 | 177 | 21 | 1279 |
| Comments | 2 | 5 | 74 | 5 | 573 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 21 | 46 | 21 | 232 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60 |
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Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes
15%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A new lobby efforts with China to reconsider these pressing-actions
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
3%
(0%)
Latvia
3%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(0%)
18
15%
(0%)
17
85%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Considering the support provided by Rodriguez to what US Government has asked to be done, it is very likely have her as Venezuela´s President for at least 6 months
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden change in support from Mrs Rodriguez to what has been asked to do could lead to a change as well in her position