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62nd
Accuracy Rank

DKC

About:
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-0.063142

Relative Brier Score

366

Forecasts

300

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 11 43 549 366 2130
Comments 7 11 119 83 810
Questions Forecasted 11 14 40 28 93
Upvotes on Comments By This User 16 38 462 300 1622
 Definitions
New Prediction
DKC
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 49
20%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
50%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
25%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
5%
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?

It may drop a bit because as @Rene and @alter_hugo mentioned, the Middle East Escalation is at the top of the news cycle every night and may distract from Russia's invasion. But I don't expect it to plummet to pre-invasion times.


And I could not find which months they collect this data. I think (perhaps a bit ethnocentrically) that the US presidential race could impact the world's view (and particularly NATO countries) and how they would respond to these questions. I, and I assume others, believe this situation would look very different if Trump is elected rather than Harris. If this data was collected immediately after the Trump-Biden debate I think the concern could be higher than 2023 and possibly 2024. With that unknown of when it was collected I am erring on the higher side.

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Why might you be wrong?

Unlikely, but if data is collected at the end of this year, Ukraine's incursion into Russia, and any additional successes on the battlefield this year, could drive the concern lower.

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ctsats
made a comment:
You are very welcome, as always :)
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
DKC
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (+3%)
Yes
Oct 5, 2024 to Apr 5, 2025
96% (-3%)
No
Oct 5, 2024 to Apr 5, 2025

Okay, I'll move up a few points based on the US pushing for it. Maybe the war will unstick the logjam.

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/04/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-new-leader-us

But I'm not confident they will be able to make it happen. so not moving higher for now.

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New Prediction
DKC
made their 21st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kharkiv
0% (0%)
Kyiv
0% (0%)
Odesa

Affirming at less than .05 for each city. Based on:

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-3-2024

FTA:

The Russian offensive effort in eastern Ukraine that began in fall 2023 continues to produce gradual Russian tactical gains in specific sectors of the front, but operationally significant gains will likely continue to elude Russian forces.

Russian forces do not have the available manpower and materiel to continue intensified offensive efforts indefinitely, however, and current Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine will likely culminate in the coming months, if not weeks, as Ukrainian officials and ISW have previously assessed.

Russian forces have recently made notable tactical gains but have not demonstrated a capacity to seize operationally significant objectives.

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New Prediction
DKC
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (-1%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
2% (-2%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (-1%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo


Perhaps motivation for Madura not to attack? It's one thing to be on the outs with the US, but when BRICs snubs you...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/maduro-s-brics-invite-slips-away-as-bloc-plans-another-expansion?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

FTA:

Maduro has chased a BRICS invite as the group plans another expansion after adding four members to its core roster of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa in January, in hopes of using it to bolster Venezuela’s legitimacy globally.


Russia, which will host the bloc’s annual summit next month, presented a preliminary list of names to its fellow members during the UN General Assembly in New York as it seeks consensus around which countries to invite, according to the officials, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.


A Russian official close to the Kremlin declined to comment specifically on Venezuela but said Vladimir Putin’s government cannot formally invite any nation to the group before there is agreement among all current members. Neither Russia’s foreign ministry nor a spokesperson for Putin responded to comment requests.

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Thanks for sharing!
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New Prediction
DKC
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
55% (-15%)
Togo
25% (0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations

I still think they will deploy to Togo, but with no new revelations in the news, I'm uncomfortable being so far above the crowd. Lowering on Togo

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New Prediction

Affirming at less than .05.

The Houthis continue to be more interested in war than peace.

https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthi-rebels-red-sea-attacks-israel-hamas-war-2faa48176d4f773003b6a4a3ad5ca73d

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New Prediction
DKC
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
55% (-5%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
45% (+5%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025

Moving down a few points because as someone noted, maybe the easy countries to takeover have already happened.

Though @belikewater suggest Libya,.

And I think Cameroon may be a candidate.

https://www.voanews.com/a/cameroon-opposition-civil-society-deny-polls-postponement-say-its-ploy-to-extend-long-serving-presidents-role/7691550.html


Yet @ctsats made a good argument that the resolution criteria could be tricky. A civil war (which what I think is happening in Libya)  and laws that infringe Democracy (maybe what is happening in Cameroon) don't count.

So I'm dropping a few points. But not lower, because I think the infringing on Democracy in Cameroon could lead to coup, IMHO.

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ctsats
made a comment:
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New Badge
DKC
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Sep 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
DKC
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Sep 2024

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
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