DKC

Affirming at less than .05.

Timeline is short and Iran is now a threshold state. The west doesn't want  them walking away from the table.

https://tehrantimes.com/news/506602/Iran-says-will-leave-NPT-if-snapback-of-UNSC-sanctions-triggered

Moving 1 more point into 10-19% based on:

Some news:

Conservatives doing what conservatives do:

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-cdu-conservatives-cut-unemployment-social-benefits-ukraine-war-refugees-v2/a-70844203

And an Update on the status of Ukrainians in Germany this week:

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43064

The head of the German Refugee Agency, Markus Seibert, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur that about 65% of them now plan to remain in the country. By comparison, a year and a half ago, the majority expressed intentions to return to Ukraine.

This shift in sentiment highlights changing priorities: Ukrainians are actively learning German, seeking employment, and striving for integration. These findings are based on regular surveys of residents in Berlin’s refugee shelters, where 9,000 Ukrainians currently live. In total, between 50,000 and 60,000 Ukrainians reside in the German capital.

Ukrainians benefit from a special residency status in Germany that allows them to work and access social benefits, including healthcare.

“Ukrainians have a unique residency status, distinct from asylum seekers, which permits employment and provides access to various social benefits, including healthcare and other forms of support,” a report stated.

The publication Bild notes that Germany remains the European leader in hosting Ukrainian refugees, with over 1.1 million currently residing there.

...

In comparison, 4,645 Ukrainians moved to Poland in September, while 3,170 went to Spain.

Earlier Kyiv Post reported an estimated 130,000 Ukrainians have returned to their homes in the Russian-occupied Donbas territories in the last year due to the difficulties they faced living as internally displaced people since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.

I think the Russia's rouble collapse may put another strain on China's economy...

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3288688/russias-plunging-rouble-puts-pressure-chinese-e-commerce-merchants

Also...

Interesting read on China-Africa relations. I didn't see anything emphasizing or suggesting a military base. Of course, it is still very possible

https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/11/what-focac-2024-reveals-about-the-future-of-china-africa-relations?lang=en

FTA: In this vision of the international system, China is positioning itself as Africa’s development partner and international ally. However, denouncing the flaws of the current order will not be enough to win the continent’s support for its project. China needs to offer practical solutions that enable Africa to overcome the structural challenges that have long made it a global charity case. For the continent to align with China, solutions need to be offered. Hence, there is a need for China to position itself as the continent’s development partner.

Thus, besides the billions of dollars proposed, which will be difficult to track, one ought to pay close attention to other development initiatives such as vocational training centers, agricultural support, medical cooperation, rural project development, and green energy development that will impact millions of lives.

...

Although all the initiatives announced at FOCAC 2024 are included in the 2025–2027 action plan and China expressed determination to achieve them, there is no guarantee that they will be explicitly endorsed by all or most African countries. Many African countries have, on numerous occasions, expressed their unwillingness to pick sides in what is perceived to be a new Cold War between the United States and China. Many countries might therefore avoid openly aligning with Beijing’s agenda, because it is perceived as being anti-West. 

Moving up a few points on Georgia after today's events.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/georgia-detains-more-than-100-during-anti-government-protest-2024-11-30/

https://x.com/KShoshiashvili/status/1862900095928168591

Turkey-backed fighters shifted the front:

https://english.alarabiya.net/views/2024/11/30/as-lebanon-s-battlefield-closes-syria-s-reignites-why-is-turkey-opening-aleppo-front-now

FTA:The surprise attack looks to be aimed at pressuring Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has refused to meet the Turkish president unless his forces withdraw from Syrian territory. Erdogan could also be looking to encircle the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - mostly comprised of Syrian Kurds from the YPG - to strengthen his bargaining position ahead of Trump’s return to the US presidency. This strategy mirrors Turkey’s previous interventions in support of Libya’s Tripoli-based government and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh.

But SDF are moving too:

https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/813074/sdf-controls-two-towns-near-aleppo-says-sohr

Affirming. 

https://www.therepublic.com/2024/11/30/more-than-100-arrested-as-georgian-police-clash-with-protesters-over-suspension-of-eu-talks/

FTA:

The government’s announcement that it was suspending negotiations to join the EU came hours after the European Parliament adopted a resolution that condemned last month’s vote as neither free nor fair. It said the election represented another manifestation of Georgia’s continued democratic backsliding “for which the ruling Georgian Dream party is fully responsible.”

European election observers said October’s vote took place in a divisive atmosphere marked by instances of bribery, double voting and physical violence.

Moving higher based on @Plataea479 report of Germany reopening some public bunkers.

I found more on this here:

https://www.thelocal.de/20241127/bunker-list-what-we-know-so-far-about-germanys-emergency-shelter-plan

Also, I spoke with friends in Switzerland last weekend and they independently, without prompting, mentioned their fear of Russia has increased because of Trump's election. 

Salt to taste.