64th
Accuracy Rank

DKC

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-0.063662

Relative Brier Score

404

Forecasts

324

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 3 29 519 404 2168
Comments 0 5 107 89 1503
Questions Forecasted 3 15 39 29 94
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 22 398 324 1646
 Definitions
New Prediction
DKC
made their 20th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (+1%)
Estonia
1% (+1%)
Latvia
1% (+1%)
Lithuania

Moving everything up a point. A long timeline and now a sycophant fanboy of Putin will be in the White House. He won't have to worry about the US objecting.

Files
New Prediction
DKC
made their 33rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes
100% (0%)
No

Affirming.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/07/myanmar-rakhine-state-economy-collapse-starvation-fears-un

FTA: Two million people in Myanmar’s Rakhine state could face starvation within months because fierce conflict and trade blockades have led to a “total economic collapse” and the imminent risk of famine, a senior UN official has warned.

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New Prediction
DKC
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
5% (+3%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo

Moving up on Venezuela attacking Guyanese oil wells, but not higher yet because the timeline is not very long between Trump taking office and 1 Aug.

This article asked experts how a new Trump administration will deal with foreign policy. Sounds to me like Trump won't be worried about stolen elections and be happy to turn the other way if Maduro was to invade Guyana if he can get something out of the deal.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/donald-trump-just-won-the-presidency-our-experts-answer-the-big-questions-about-what-that-means-for-americas-role-in-the-world/

FTA:

could point to a second Trump administration adopting a more transactional approach to Caracas. The Trump administration, after all, on multiple occasions engaged in backchannel talks with Maduro, and Trump himself expressed interest in meeting Maduro face to face back in 2020. Ultimately, while it is likely that Trump will adopt more confrontational rhetoric on Venezuela, he may see more value in containing the outward flow of migration and securing a US and Western footprint in Venezuela’s oil sector than in reverting to a maximum-pressure approach.

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New Prediction
DKC
made their 42nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)

Affirming. FWIW This article suggests Israel's strikes in Iran have increased the likelihood of Iran's nuclear growth.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/10/iran-nuclear-weapons-israel-khamenei/680437/

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New Prediction

Affirming at less than .05%

The world is holding its breath that the Israel/Iran fight doesn't escalate and inflame even more of the region. No one is going to hold Iran to anything while Israel is doing whatever it wants. IMHO.

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New Prediction
DKC
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
13% (0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
71% (0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
15% (0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 40%

There could be some movement in the coming months with Ukraine.

https://on.ft.com/3NPj5Dn

And... Thanks to @VidurKapur for pointing out this info:

https://x.com/ConStelz/status/1848054114682302734

Translations (from DeepL)

Despite the debate and Putin's ever louder spokespeople (AfD and BSW), the majority in 🇩🇪 are still in favor of military support for Ukraine. Since 2022, these values have been relatively stable in the ZdF & ARD polls - despite fewer political statements.

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New Badge
DKC
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Affirming. I was considering dropping a few points because I think China focus is on Taiwan and their economy was in trouble. But latest indicator are showing a more stable outlook for China's economy, so I'll hold here for now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-31/china-factory-activity-snaps-contraction-streak-on-stimulus-push

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New Badge
DKC
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
DKC
made their 20th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
6% (-2%)
Moldova
1% (-1%)
Armenia
5% (-5%)
Georgia
0% (0%)
Kazakhstan

Moving down on Georgia because of recent election results. And the fact that I don't know if the International community has enough bandwidth to make a big effort here w with 2 wars ongoing.

But protests continue:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5rI4gjsF08&ab_channel=GuardianNews


Although I'm not seeing evidence presented yet, and it appears to be a city  (Tblisi) vs rural divide. So not dropping lower.

https://civil.ge/archives/631386


https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20241029-georgia-launches-partial-vote-recount-after-opposition-protests-election-results

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