DKC

About:

I love dogs, travel, writing, and geopolitical forecasting. And I feel fortunate to have all of those in my life.

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2025 Season Stats

No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score

120

Forecasts

66

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 3 23 409 120 2350
Comments 3 28 226 145 1678
Questions Forecasted 3 10 31 17 105
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 11 305 66 1760
 Definitions
New Prediction
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
DKC made their 26th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
5% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Why do you think you're right?

Affirming. The US continues to talk a hard line against Venezuela, while offering no real support Guyana (IMHO).  Maduro has nothing to lose that I can see.

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Why might you be wrong?

This timeline is short and Trump flip-flops so much anything could happen.

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New Prediction
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
DKC made their 19th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
2% (0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
80% (0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
17% (0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?

Affirming. Government rhetoric is clearly supporting Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/28/friedrich-merz-picks-pro-kyiv-foreign-minister-and-promises-german-support-for-ukraine

FTA: 

Germany’s chancellor-designate, Friedrich Merz, has promised to put staunch support of Ukraine at the heart of his government after announcing that a pro-Kyiv foreign policy expert and former soldier will be the new foreign minister.

...

Promising to tackle Russian aggression and the rise of the far right, he told party colleagues: “The pillars we have relied on over the past years and decades are crumbling around us. Trust in our democracy is damaged like never before in our country’s postwar history.”

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Why might you be wrong?

There could be a push-back.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Dropping a bit.  The world is so unstable. I think China will focus on South China Sea and Taiwan.

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Why might you be wrong?

Xi may be more interested in world domination than I think.

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New Prediction
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
DKC made their 19th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
1% (0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
28% (0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
56% (+1%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
15% (-1%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?

Pulling a point out of the highest bin. I may be too high there. Not finding anything in the news

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Why might you be wrong?

Afd may be more popular than I realize, and push pro-Russia propaganda

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New Prediction
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
DKC made their 17th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
9% (-1%)
Togo
39% (-4%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?

Dropping a bit in both bins based on lack of news, and the complete failure of Trump's ability to end the war on Ukraine.

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Why might you be wrong?

There could be a lot of behind the scenes maneuvering I'm not aware of.

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New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
DKC made their 35th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Estonia
2% (0%)
Latvia
2% (0%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?

Affirming. No sign of the Ukraine/Russia conflict ending. I think Putin will wait until after that to move on.

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Why might you be wrong?

But maybe not.

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New Prediction
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
DKC made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
100% (+51%)
Less than 30 days
0% (-14%)
30 days
0% (-3%)
31-60 days
0% (-3%)
61-90 days
0% (-31%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?

Moving all into first bin just in case this counts...

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c934nprkqz3t

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Why might you be wrong?

It might not fit resolution criteria (and it's the night before Easter and we have a 5-year-old in the house so no time to look up the details:)

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New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
DKC made their 37th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
4% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
2% (0%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?

Affirming. Waiting to see what happens in Ukraine. There are a lot of balls in the air.

Conflicting indicators on Russian Economy

https://petroleumaustralia.com.au/news_article/trumps-tariffs-trigger-sharp-oil-price-drop-risking-russias-economy/

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/04/16/russian-ruble-surges-becoming-worlds-best-performing-currency-a88754

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Why might you be wrong?

Depending on the economy, Putin may not worry about Ukriane.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Affirming at less than .04% chance. He is in control, appears healthy, and well-protected.

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Why might you be wrong?

Some completely random event (asteroid? lightning strike?).

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New Prediction
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
DKC made their 48th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes
100% (0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Affirming at less than .05% chance. The Junta was in retreat before the earthquake, and there are still aftershocks. I don't see how anyone could pull together an election in this situation within 2.5 months.


https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/central-myanmar-shaken-new-quake-biggest-aftershocks-march-120757777

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Why might you be wrong?

A bad fake election could be attempted, but that shouldn't resolve yes.

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