DKC

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I love dogs, travel, writing, and geopolitical forecasting. And I feel fortunate to have all of those in my life.

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2020 Season Stats

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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 5 22 314 290 2520
Comments 5 26 355 333 1866
Questions Forecasted 5 9 28 23 111
Upvotes on Comments By This User 2 10 159 142 1836
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming. Not seeing anything in the news to suggest a change.
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Why might you be wrong?

After the click-bait of mirror life headlines could increase, In which case I am too low and perhaps should move higher.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

It is a long timeline and things could change. But with Trump's recent published war doctrine:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/breaking-down-trumps-2025-national-security-strategy/

And as noted in a post by @LogicCurve , the Trump administration is canceling warship construction. It appears that China doesn't have to worry about the  US.

Additionaly, Russia is unlikely to beconsidered a competitor to China anymore. Russia's warships have been hit hard by Ukraine, and they can't seem to win a war that they've started with a country that has 1/3 to 1/4 of the population.

And if I take this in conjuction with the surge in exports China has had as a result of Trump's tariffs, It would behoove China to play nice and continue the velvet diplomacy that emphasizes trade and aid, over displays of brute military strength.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/12/8/china-trade-surplus-tops-1tn-for-first-time-amid-pivot-to-counter-us-lull

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Why might you be wrong?

A long timeline, and a lot could happen to change US positions in a year.

And Xi may want to take advantage of a weak US to broaden China's reach.

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New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
DKC made their 56th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
5% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
0% (0%)
Georgia
0% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?

I think Moldova continues to be a thorn in Putin's side:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/08/russia-tests-crypto-funded-hybrid-warfare-on-moldova-latest-experiment-costs-it-107-million/


Armenia seems to mostly seemed handled, and Georgia has a puppet government that makes Putin happy IMHO

I'm not higher on Moldova only because I think finally the sanctions are having an impact on Russia:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/07/putin-accept-trump-deal-russia-economy-ukraine-war

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Why might you be wrong?

Putin has dug himself out of other jams, And perhaps his war economy needs there to be a war to support itself, so if peace comes with Ukraine reduced sanctions  he might need or at least have a reason to go after Moldova.

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New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
DKC made their 53rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1% (-1%)
Estonia
0% (0%)
Latvia
1% (-1%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?

The sanctions may finally be doing what they were designed to do. And Putin will need more than a year for the economy to recover.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-oil-exports-war-funding-collapse-sanctions-ukraine-war-2025-12

FTA:

The revenue collapse stems from a combination of a stronger ruble and sagging Brent prices, widening discounts on Russian crude as buyers demand steeper price cuts to offset the risk of sanctions.


The divergence between stable exports and collapsing revenue has major implications for Moscow's ability to finance its war in Ukraine.


Oil and gas revenues have historically accounted for more than a third of Russia's federal budget, and energy remains one of the country's most significant sources of funding.


But even as Russia boosts weapons production and ramps up defense spending, the money flowing in to support that buildup is shrinking.

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Why might you be wrong?

Professionals have forecast economic disaster for years, but Putin's economic advisors have pulled Russia back from the brink before. Perhaps with cypto this time.

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Moving up a couple of points. It's in the news at Stanford:

https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/health-policy-forum-possible-peril-engineered-mirror-life


IMHO makes it slightly more likely to be formally addressed in a major meeting.

FTA:

While such “mirror life” is unlikely for at least a decade and would require substantial funding and major breakthroughs, it’s the kind of risk we should anticipate now, according to David Relman, MD, a professor of medicine and of microbiology and immunology and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.


“For me, it was two years of gradually coming to grips with the possibility that, now, for the first time, there was something that could conceivably threaten much of life on the planet,” said Relman, a founding member of the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity and a former senior advisor in the Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy at the White House.


Relman was a headliner at the recent Stanford Health Policy Forum: Engineered Threats to Global Health, in conversation with Hank Greely, JD, a law professor who focuses on ethical, legal, and social issues in the biosciences and director of the Center for Law and the Biosciences at Stanford Law School. The talk was moderated by Paul Costello, an adjunct professor in the Stanford Department of Medicine.

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Why might you be wrong?

A new pandemic or environmental health crisis (i.e. microplastics or wildfire smoke) could drive it out of the news and these discussions/formal addresses could get pushed past the 2030 deadline.

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New Prediction
What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?
DKC made their 10th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
38% (0%)
Less than $350 million
38% (0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
18% (0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
4% (0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
2% (0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Why do you think you're right?

In 2024 there were no seed round funding awarded in December. I expect that may not be unusual, so I'm thinking we are probably at the total for 2025. As I expect the world to continue with it's volatile path for the next year, I'm thinking by doubling what we have for this year, we wind up in the lowest bin.

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Why might you be wrong?

Investors may want to jump onto some AI-driven biotech startup and after a year of caution may be ready to invest with larger amounts in 2026.

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ctsats made a comment:

FWIW, 40M were added on Dec 1, the 4th biggest seed round in 2025 so far (although it is for a US company, hence not applicable here): https://www.labiotech.eu/biotech-funding-2025-tracker/ 😉

Also FWIW, the said round is not included (yet?) in the Fierce Biotracker (last updated on Dec 3).

 
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New Badge
DKC earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Nov 2025

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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DKC earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Nov 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
DKC made their 21st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
71% (-9%)
Less than 30 days
2% (0%)
30 days
9% (+3%)
31-60 days
9% (+3%)
61-90 days
9% (+3%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?

Spreading out to some of the higher bins. The rationale of  @JonathanMann makes a lot of sense to me.

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Why might you be wrong?

Maybe I should be higher on the highest bin. If Russia gets everything it wants, Putin might not violate it.

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