147th
Accuracy Rank

Heramb_42

About:

- AI Policy research group Team Lead at Center for AI and Digital Policy
-Final year-undergrad at IIT Roorkee

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 12, 2025 03:27PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 1, 2025 and Oct 12, 2025) -0.162845
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025? -0.063235
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? -0.002996
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea? -0.007765
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025? -0.002427
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025? 0.099233
Aug 12, 2025 03:00PM UTC What will the U.S. annual inflation rate be in July 2025? -0.010236
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025? 0.006454
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? -0.000827
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025? -0.000664
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025? 0.001658
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025? -0.000555
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? -0.000121
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025? -0.010564
Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025) 0.040651
May 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 28, 2025 and May 28, 2025) -0.00002
Apr 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 28, 2025 and Apr 28, 2025) -0.000242
Apr 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 4, 2025 and Apr 4, 2025) -0.002981
Apr 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 4, 2025 and Apr 4, 2025) -0.000677
Apr 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 2, 2025 and Apr 2, 2025) 0.004877
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