Confirmed previous forecast
-0.240475
Relative Brier Score
388
Forecasts
10
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 24 | 100 | 772 | 388 | 2085 |
| Comments | 7 | 48 | 256 | 214 | 318 |
| Questions Forecasted | 23 | 42 | 74 | 54 | 160 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 16 | 10 | 123 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Angola
1%
(0%)
Kenya
4%
(0%)
Ethiopia
1%
(0%)
Nigeria
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 66
4%
(0%)
Between 67 and 70, inclusive
22%
(0%)
Between 71 and 74, inclusive
44%
(0%)
Between 75 and 78, inclusive
30%
(0%)
More than or equal to 79
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 70
2%
(0%)
Between 71 and 74, inclusive
29%
(0%)
Between 75 and 78, inclusive
44%
(0%)
Between 79 and 82, inclusive
25%
(0%)
More than or equal to 83
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering...
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-3%)
Yes
99%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering...
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
45%
(0%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
21%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
7%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
67%
(0%)
Yes
33%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Most ceasefires in this war and others involving Russia tend to fall apart quickly. The underlying issues (eg. Crimea, NATO, etc.) haven’t been resolved and both sides are still actively trying to improve their positions. Without a credible enforcement mechanism, I think a short-lived truce is much more likely than something stable.
Why might you be wrong?
It’s possible both sides are just exhausted. If external pressure ramps up, especially from Trump or other international players, they might stick with a ceasefire longer than expected. Even if the war isn’t truly 'over,' a longer pause could hold --> if (!!) it benefits both sides politically or strategically.