Zeroing out
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 66 | 765 | 722 | 2419 |
| Comments | 4 | 20 | 373 | 335 | 439 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 31 | 82 | 68 | 174 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 17 | 16 | 129 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Togo
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(0%)
18
1%
(0%)
17
99%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-2%)
Yes
98%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
small update time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
3%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
89%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
6%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(+18%)
Yes
15%
(-18%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
NATO plans
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-5%)
Yes
93%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
dropping
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Oop — underestimated chance of continued violence despite ceasefire
Why might you be wrong?
Na