PeterStamp

Very first impression: only looking at the curve under "more info" and peak of 21.9 in 2020 makes this look like 50:50 at best, probably lower. Trend looks relatively flat but volatile since 2015.

Second approach: looking at the states and their main trading goods. "West Asia comprises 18 countries, namely, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen."; "The 6 Countries Of North Africa · Algeria · Egypt · Libya · Morocco · Sudan · Tunisia. ". Most of them with relatively weak economies or to large parts based on raw materials (oil, gas, fertilizer (e.g. phosphate in some of them)).

They are relatively close to each other, so trading with each other makes sense, but I don´t see room for big changes upwards. Some in relative chaos or at least unstability, so relevant increase would need to come from only a few of them, or from more instability (weapons? food for Egypt?). Sorry, I don´t see much more demand for oil and gas in buyer countries or much potential for other goods. 

Third approach: "us together against others" (trade deals out of solidarity?). Unlikely.

No time for more approaches, so long story short: possible, but quite unlikely.

12 possible scenarios (plus combinations of them), but I don´t see them above 0.1% on average. Extremely specific question criteria (state-owned oil entitities from 3 countries belonging to the more harmless ones in that part of the world). If at all, it would probably have to do with EU sanctions as a reaction to some event in the Arab world/Near or Middle East (Israel, Sudan, Yemen???). Would have given a different answer, if it had been about Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia etc., but not these. Sorry, my phantasy is not strong enough for more than one symbolic point.

Confirmed previous forecast

Confirmed previous forecast

Confirmed previous forecast

Time, very unlikely between 24 and 31 December.

time