Although discussions about regulating artificial intelligence are growing at both the state and international levels, the federal regulatory framework in the United States remains inconsistent and loosely organized. It is more likely that new AI policies will be introduced through executive orders rather than through legislation passed by Congress. The current administration has demonstrated a pattern of using executive authority primarily to streamline rules and remove regulatory barriers, rather than to create comprehensive new restrictions. This approach reflects a preference for flexibility and innovation over rigid federal control.
0.01567
Relative Brier Score
15
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Comments | 1 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
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Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Emerging Technology,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Artificial Intelligence,
Iran: Threats & Influence
Most Active Topics:
Emerging Tech - AI,
Russia-Europe,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mirror Life,
China Lithography
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The rapid development of AI regulations in other parts of the world, particularly within the European Union, is increasing international pressure on the United States to move more quickly on its own regulatory framework. As other governments establish rules that could shape global norms, the U.S. risks losing influence over the direction of international AI standards. To preserve its leadership role in setting ethical, technical, and security benchmarks for AI, the United States may feel compelled to accelerate its regulatory efforts and engage more actively in global policy discussions.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The EU has worked to buy gas from many places like the U.S., Norway, Algeria, and Qatar, so it doesn’t rely too much on Russia.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If something goes wrong with gas from places like Norway, Algeria, or U.S. LNG like production problems, transport delays, or political issues the EU could face gas shortages. In that case, they might have to buy more gas from Russia, even if they don’t want to.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
92%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Assembling these components into a living system remains unsolved. The inability of broken cells to re-form shows how little is understood about the coordination needed to create functional organelles and metabolism.
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Why might you be wrong?
Breakthroughs in AI and computational biology, such as protein structure prediction, are speeding up discovery and may eventually make it possible to design and build fully synthetic cells.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 31, 2025 01:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
99%
No
Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Doing these tests is very expensive and needs a lot of resources. Also, the whole world watches closely when North Korea tests nuclear bombs. Other countries get angry, and this can lead to stronger punishments, like more sanctions. That means less trade, less money, and more problems for North Korea’s weak economy, which is already struggling.
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Why might you be wrong?
If North Korea does nuclear testing, they can check if their new weapons work properly. This helps them improve the design and show the world they’re getting better at making powerful bombs, especially small ones that can be used in battle. It’s a way for them to prove they have advanced technology and can’t be ignored.
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Why do you think you're right?
The RSF, however, faces its own major difficulties. It is still far from Khartoum, with roughly two hundred kilometers of difficult terrain between its current positions and the capital. Before it can approach Khartoum, it would have to move through several large and well-defended cities such as al-Obeid, Bara, Omdurman, or Bahri. Each of these areas would require large amounts of time, manpower, and supplies to secure. These challenges mean that any RSF effort to reach the capital would be slow and extremely costly, limiting how quickly its momentum could build.
Why might you be wrong?
The SAF is dealing with several internal weaknesses that could affect its overall stability. There are long-standing ethnic and tribal tensions inside the force, and morale has been shaken after the loss of El Fasher. After more than two years of intense fighting with heavy casualties, many units are worn down and could be at risk of desertion or collapse. The country’s worsening economic situation also adds pressure, and strains among groups that support the SAF could weaken the government’s hold on Khartoum. These combined stresses make the capital more exposed to political and military pressure from the RSF.