Confirmed previous forecast
10.117312
Relative Brier Score
110
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 110 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 25 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Artificial Intelligence,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Emerging Technology
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Iran-VNSAs,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Africa
New Prediction
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
91%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
0%
(0%)
30 days
9%
(0%)
31-60 days
0%
(0%)
61-90 days
0%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
91%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
0%
(0%)
30 days
9%
(0%)
31-60 days
0%
(0%)
61-90 days
0%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
