Europe has been reducing imports of natural gas from Russia to punish its war against Ukraine.
It has been diversifying ever since 2022 to become less reliant on Russia.
0.000466
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
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Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts,
Emerging Technology,
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War
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Star Commenter - Dec 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Lack of supply. Europe may be forced to import gas because it has no other option.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It is common for European countries to sign defense procurement contracts with non-European suppliers. Especially now as Europe is trying to reduce dependency on the US and diversify its defense supply chain.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
European countries may favor defense procurement contract with each other rather than non-European countries for many reasons.
1) keep supply chain lean and close by. very important to maximize efficiencies in a large conflict.
2) circular economy. money invested into neighboring countries is money that is much more likely to come back to the investor's country.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Many countries have already implemented a national carbon tax. There is a strong international push towards limited CO2.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Taxes are almost always unpopular with the common person.
Carbon taxes are usually regressive and disproportionally affect lower-income citizens. Unless they are specifically targeted at industry with rules to prevent costs from being passed to consumers.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
In the past, the US has showed a willingness to restrict the export the GPU chips to China for the purpose of slowing down their AI progress.
The US will most likely do so again if China starts coming out with more advanced AI models made possible by US technology and software.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The US wants to reverse the import-export balance with the world to reduce its trade deficit. AI-related technology and software are very valuable and can become a profitable export.
The short-term pursuit for profits may outweigh the national security risks of enabling China to have the most advanced AI models.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Regulations make it very difficult to incorporate new technologies into medical device. This would require lengthy tests and trials before it is approved.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Streamlining of regulation by the current US-administration as it has stated to be very pro-AI and the goal of making the US #1 in AI.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Tax credits are a cost-effective way of encouraging positive behavior.
Every piece of software has vulnerabilities and the potential to be exploited. AI models will most likely have a security vulnerability be exploited by 2029. AI will be more integrated into society and the economy so there may be a loss of billions in dollars lost/stolen.
This will prompt a response of the US and/or UK to pass bills to boost the security of AI models.
A likely option is to offer tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models
Why might you be wrong?
AI will be much important to the economy by 2029 and governments will be careful to restrict the development of AI models to prevent slowing down their own economies.