Confirmed previous forecast
0.816466
Relative Brier Score
994
Forecasts
43
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 141 | 91 | 994 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 24 | 10 | 32 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 38 | 30 | 62 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 43 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Emerging Technology,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Artificial Intelligence
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Open RAN,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Africa
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
17%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
73%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
9%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
4%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Apr 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 19, 2025 12:16AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 19, 2025 to Oct 19, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 19, 2025 to Oct 19, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
36%
(0%)
Yes
64%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files