Thursday

Trump's recent assertion that Ukraine can fully retake territory will embolden both sides to continue fighting, and the statement has not resulted in any US commitment to further assist Ukraine in bringing the war to an end.   Trump's statement has also made it politically impossible for Zellensky to accept any settlement that would give up territory for now.

Eirope also announced further loans to Ukraine from seized Russian assets, which provides Ukraine resources to continue the war.

Most recent numbers are just above 70.  I still see a high likelihood of downward pressure due to unpredictable political decisions, but the impact is slightly delayed and may not bring the total below 70 for the year.

Trump has continued to fully support Russia on this file, and Russia is making advances on the battlefield.  Russia sees no reason to end the war right now, especially given that severe economic contraction would almost certainly follow the end of the war, and may destabilize the government.   The US actions that are strengthening China's global influence are also reducing the impact of sanctions as countries aligned with China continue to do robust business with Russia.

There are no signs of this happening today, and the question expires tomorrow.

The average rate for 2024 was 70.1%, a slight increase over 2023.  While I anticipate a significant drop due to US incompetence and unpredictability, I don't believe the full force of that will yet reach the labour market in 2025.

The US has abandoned education, science, and medical science in particular.  While the current students are likely to graduate as expected, there are unlikely to be many people willing to invest the huge sums in a US education in medical science in the coming years as the employment prospects in the field will be severely limited by research funding cuts and a general disdain for scientific work.  Motivated individuals are likely to seek foreign education and employment.  Very few foreign PhD students would continue to seek enrollment at US universities.

While North Korea is not seeking war with South Korea, they are emboldened by their stronger partnerships with Russia and China.  They are also likely going to seek to test US resolve in defending South Korea.  China is highly motivated to demonstrate to Taiwan that the US will not defend an ally, so their increased provocation of the Philippines is one method, and their tacit permission to the DPRK to antagonize South Korea with some limited lethal force would also be demonstrative to Taiwan.  It's a slow boil of getting the world used to Trump not responding with military force to attacks on allies so it is not so unthinkable when China takes Taiwan prior to the end of the Trump presidency.