Confirmed previous forecast
-0.055699
Relative Brier Score
285
Forecasts
59
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 16 | 278 | 285 | 460 |
| Comments | 2 | 13 | 261 | 269 | 322 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 13 | 26 | 27 | 38 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 3 | 57 | 59 | 130 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(0%)
18
0%
(0%)
17
100%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
With less than two weeks to go, this now seems exceedingly unlikely. The world's attention has shifted to Greenland, South America and Iran, although Mr Trump's 'Board of Peace' for Gaza was recently unveiled.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Behind the scenes coordination that I'm unaware of.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
100%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing my forecast by a percentage point because of the passage of time, and by another percentage point (to below 0.5%) because it seems to me that the Sudanese Armed Forces are starting to regain their footing, having lost territory toward the end of last year (see also @belikewater's comment).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The trajectory of a war can change quite rapidly.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming my forecasts. Trump's threats against Greenland probably won't materialise in the form of military action, though an acquisition or compact of free association is more likely.
If the US was to take Greenland by force, it would likely lead to the dissolution of NATO in all but name. An alternative defence alliance would still likely provide security guarantees to the Baltic States, but those guarantees would be weaker without US participation.
Therefore, despite the passage of time, I am confirming my forecasts.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As above, US military action in Greenland could mean Putin takes advantage of the resulting strife within NATO.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-1%)
Moldova
4%
(-1%)
Armenia
0%
(-1%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing my forecasts for Moldova, Armenia and Georgia because of the passage of time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden Russian breakthrough in Ukraine could embolden Putin to intervene in other countries he considers to be in his 'sphere of influence'.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Dec 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
With just 5 hours to go, this is virtually inpossible now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An end of year deployment.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
This is basically impossible now, with just a few hours left to go.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A supernatural event at the end of the year?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
This is basically impossible now, with just a few hours to go.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A “surprise end of year deployment”
Files