Confirmed previous forecast
0.917361
Relative Brier Score
20
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts,
Geopolitical Security
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
No relevant news after the NATO summit, with Spain not changing its position.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unpredictable last-minute developments.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Very close to expiration; it is improbable that they make a deal.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Something unpredictable.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-29%)
Less than 2.3%
27%
(-26%)
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
58%
(+46%)
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
11%
(+9%)
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3.2%
Why do you think you're right?
US inflation reached 2.7% In June 2025, higher than expected and seemingly due to tariffs (https://www.ft.com/content/65b1fb44-6391-4f74-82db-2d7eb6aaafa9). It is also interesting to notice the big negative contribution to GDP growth of inventories in June (see the plot below from https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab3), which may signal price increases ahead.
Given also the projection of a 4% increase by the end of the year by the OECD (https://www.ft.com/content/b8a50672-f0d9-4da4-a36c-e5487a0114ce), the latest increases suggests that the upward trend in inflation could continue into August.
I also consider valuable the forecasts by the other users, who attach substantial probability to an inflation figure between 2.6 and 2.9 for multiple reasons, e.g. the dynamics of gas prices and of core inflation.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The effects of tariffs may emerge later or could suddenly escalate; it is difficult to be precise given current data. It is also concerning that there is broad consensus among forecasters, making it hard to find reputable counter-evidence.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-80%)
Yes
95%
(+80%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
No new developments since the NATO summit on June 25, where Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez refused to increase Spain’s military spending to 5% of GDP. Although some commentators argue that Sánchez’s stance is aimed at shoring up support amid declining approval, I believe the odds of him reversing this position remain low.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected, sudden developments, including new tariff threats.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+1%)
Yes
95%
(-1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Putin urges Iran to take 'zero enrichment' nuclear deal with US, Axios reported on July 12, 2025 (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/putin-urges-iran-take-zero-enrichment-nuclear-deal-with-us-axios-reports-2025-07-12/). However, time is running out, and the chances of a deal are diminishing. Still, I’ve increased my ‘Yes’ probability to 5%.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Negotiations may be further along than I realize. The relative calm following the June 24 ceasefire between Israel and Iran could also indicate that talks are underway.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 15, 2025 06:56AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-100%)
Yes
Jul 15, 2025 to Jan 15, 2026
100%
(+100%)
No
Jul 15, 2025 to Jan 15, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Little time has remained.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected sudden developments.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 15, 2025 06:55AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+96%)
Yes
Jul 15, 2025 to Jan 15, 2026
0%
(-96%)
No
Jul 15, 2025 to Jan 15, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Too little time remained.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected sudden events.
Files