I think lawmakers are pretty far behind on generating consensus on what the policy should be or even how to think about regulating this space. I think all the big tech bros seem to have some influence with the administration and would convince the administration not to regulate (e.g. Elon, Bezos and Zuckerberg).
0.679104
Relative Brier Score
13
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Comments | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
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Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts,
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology
Most Active Topics:
Emerging Tech - AI,
Russia-Europe
New Prediction
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They are struggling to get a budget bill passed so I don't think I'm wrong here.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
This seems unlikely to me with the chaotic Trump foreign policy approach. The administration seems to be tacitly approving Israel's actions, so it seems that all three countries likely need to come to an agreement before this question resolves yes.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Israel and US conduct new strikes, which could put more pressure on Iran to make a deal.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
65%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It seems that inbound travel decreased compared to 2024 after Trump took office, and seems to have stayed lower. Trend is mirroring 2024 pretty closely, but my guess is that it will still be depressed compared to last year due to Trump policies making certain groups feel unwelcome or fearful of entry to the US.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The 2025 trend line is lower, but not that much lower than 2024, so it could over take 2024 with summer travel.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The last few July observations have been dropping each year. While current year trend is higher in Feb-Mar, monthly lbs seized is dropping.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Changes in demand may increase imports above what I expect.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
A war with Iran makes it unlikely he will experience an uptick in approval rating, particularly because this issue seems to be dividing his base.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I'm not sure I'm wrong here...he has lots of headwinds and the military parade seem to be not well attended and expensive, so not likely any change among voters that are not a core part of his base but did vote for him.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The Europeans hopefully step in to fill the gap left by the US. The current US budget bill news is focused on tax cuts and Medicaid cuts, so it is hard to tell if there are substantial allocations for Ukraine in the new bill.
Why might you be wrong?
Europe could continue to favor financial and humanitarian aid instead of military aid.