Forecasted Questions
Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 18, 2025 03:38AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jul 18, 2025 03:38AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 46% | +4% | +17% |
| No | 50% | 54% | -4% | -17% |
Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 18, 2025 04:26AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jul 18, 2025 04:26AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 47% | +8% | +10% |
| No | 45% | 53% | -8% | -10% |
Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 18, 2025 04:51AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jul 18, 2025 04:51AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 29% | +26% | +2% |
| No | 45% | 71% | -26% | -2% |
Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 28, 2025 09:45PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 28, 2025 09:45PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45% | 36% | +9% | -23% |
| No | 55% | 64% | -9% | +23% |
Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 02, 2025 08:35PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Aug 02, 2025 08:35PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 64% | -4% | +3% |
| No | 40% | 36% | +4% | -3% |
Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 05:22AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 05:22AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 11% | +14% | -6% |
| No | 75% | 89% | -14% | +6% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 05:41AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 05:41AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 7% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 93% | -3% | +0% |
Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 05:49AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 05:49AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 10% | -5% | -2% |
| No | 95% | 90% | +5% | +2% |
Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 06:04AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 06:04AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 20% | +10% | -6% |
| No | 70% | 80% | -10% | +6% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 05:10AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 01, 2025 05:10AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |