52nd
Accuracy Rank

ctsats

Christos Iraklis Tsatsoulis
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2025 Season Stats

0.021689

Relative Brier Score

214

Forecasts

58

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 15 56 575 214 1023
Comments 6 24 346 158 1083
Questions Forecasted 13 13 28 16 56
Upvotes on Comments By This User 2 5 260 58 1146
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
ctsats made their 22nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7% (0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
93% (0%)
No
Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

There are no indications of change at the Nuclear Test Site at Punggye-ri, which remains occupied and prepared to support a new nuclear test [1]

30. The [Punggye-ri] nuclear test site remains prepared to support a nuclear test. [2]


[1] IAEA Director General's Introductory Statement to the Board of Governors, June 3, 2024 - https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/iaea-director-generals-introductory-statement-to-the-board-of-governors-3-june-2024

[2] Application of Safeguards in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea - Report of the IAEA Director General, August 26, 2024 - https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/gc/gc68-15.pdf

Files
Why might you be wrong?

n/a

Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
ctsats made their 21st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7% (0%)
Yes
Apr 28, 2025 to Oct 28, 2025
93% (0%)
No
Apr 28, 2025 to Oct 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
ctsats made their 27th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 28, 2025 to Oct 28, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Apr 28, 2025 to Oct 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
ctsats made their 39th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
ctsats made their 31st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
11% (-1%)
Yes
89% (+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Slight adjustment

Files
Why might you be wrong?

n/a

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
ctsats made their 20th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Apr 28, 2025 to Oct 28, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Apr 28, 2025 to Oct 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
ctsats made their 18th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
10% (0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
78% (0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
10% (0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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